LMGC Skins Probability Chart
Here is an updated listing of the probability of making a skin.
Originally done about 3 years ago, now updated using more data.
(12-30-2025)
| PROBABILITY OF | ||||||||||||||||||||
| WINNING A SKIN | HOLE | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | |
| WITH A | Par | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| A FLIGHT | ||||||||||||||||||||
| EAGLE | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | ||
| BIRDIE | 73% | 68% | 56% | 42% | 86% | 95% | 15% | 46% | 11% | 67% | 46% | 80% | 64% | 4% | 31% | 52% | 67% | 24% | ||
| PAR | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| B FLIGHT | ||||||||||||||||||||
| EAGLE | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| BIRDIE | 89% | 92% | 62% | 65% | 90% | 98% | 55% | 64% | 49% | 86% | 71% | 93% | 87% | 30% | 60% | 80% | 87% | 65% | ||
| PAR | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| C FLIGHT | ||||||||||||||||||||
| EAGLE | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| BIRDIE | 96% | 94% | 80% | 88% | 93% | 99% | 79% | 88% | 82% | 94% | 86% | 96% | 93% | 54% | 76% | 87% | 94% | 86% | ||
| PAR | 8% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| D FLIGHT | ||||||||||||||||||||
| EAGLE | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| BIRDIE | 100% | 99% | 89% | 93% | 99% | 99% | 94% | 92% | 89% | 100% | 92% | 98% | 99% | 80% | 95% | 99% | 96% | 96% | ||
| PAR | 37% | 33% | 0% | 2% | 15% | 64% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 23% | 4% | 14% | 24% | 0% | 4% | 14% | 14% | 11% | ||
| E FLIGHT | ||||||||||||||||||||
| EAGLE | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| BIRDIE | 100% | 99% | 95% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 96% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 100% | 93% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||
| PAR | 82% | 79% | 11% | 12% | 20% | 85% | 19% | 57% | 17% | 31% | 18% | 24% | 30% | 7% | 15% | 24% | 60% | 25% |